Monday, October 01, 2007

Betting on Hillary







On Sunday, I made a bet with Christian (pictured above right) and then Rachel (pictured with the guitar) that Hillary Clinton would be the Democratic nominee for President. I didn't make a bet if she would win or not (too many unknown variables at the moment), but I'm absolutely certain that she will be the Democrat's choice for president in 2008.

Neither Christian (a Socialist) nor Rachel (Democrat? Independent?) think Hillary will get the nomination because she has too much baggage, and they're not talking about what's under her eyes. I disagreed because of an ironic thing called the $40 million Ken Starr investigation which turned up nothing more than a sexual affair with an intern. She is the most investigated candidate in the race. After spending $40 million of taxpayer money, all Ken Starr could come up with was an indiscreet sexual affair that her husband conducted? Even Ken Starr admitted that Vince Foster's death was a suicide (though conspiracy theorists love to claim that Hillary had murdered him). I'd love to see what a $40 million investigation would turn up in other candidates like Giuliani, Gingrich (whose still considering jumping in the race), Thompson, and even "squeaky clean" Romney.

Hillary is the safe bet. Besides, I know how the Democratic party works. We saw it in 2004. Howard Dean was ahead in the money chase as well as the polls, before imploding in the Iowa caucus, as scaredy cat Iowa Democrats thought the establishment choice of John Kerry would have a better chance of defeating Bush. The corporate suits in the DLC were only too happy to accommodate or encourage such conventional decision-making. I personally think the Iowa caucus is a sham anyhow. Besides, I've been to Iowa many times. There aren't a whole lot of black people in that part of the country. Hillary proved critics wrong when she was able to win voters in upstate New York in her 2000 Senate campaign. Hillary has often proved critics wrong. It's a mistake for anyone to underestimate her.

One other thing that leads me to believe why Hillary will be the nominee is an election known as 1992. In 1992, it was no secret that the Republicans wanted Bill Clinton to be the nominee because he had the most liabilities. They thought he was easy to beat because of his personal baggage. But he prevailed because he focused on the issues that mattered to voters while Bush senior did little but personal attacks (going so far as to even attack Clinton's mother!). Hillary will follow the same formula for success. She'll be viciously attacked, people will view such attacks as extreme and crossing the line, she'll gain a huge sympathy vote.

Let's face it...Hillary is going to make history.

And I'll be collecting $10.00 sometime next spring once the nominees have been determined by the primaries. I wanted to bet more money, but Christian and Rachel only wanted to be $5 each. Shows you just how "confident" they are!

2 comments:

Sean Langdon said...

I'm with you an this one Nick! I think she'll get the nomination.

d/b/c/m said...

i think you're right. i really wish candidates less "polished" would be considered, but it's pretty much a given...well, i take that back...i think obama has a very small chance still, but it's not likely.